A new survey from Creighton University shows manufacturers in Iowa and across the Midwest ended 2025 on a weak note, with job losses reported for the ninth straight month.
Creighton economics professor Ernie Goss says the region’s main economic indicator fell to its lowest level of the year in December. He says much of the downturn is being blamed on tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and by other countries in response.
Goss says small manufacturers are being hit especially hard, as tariffs tend to have a bigger impact on smaller firms than on large companies. He says the effects of tariffs on manufacturing are becoming more pronounced and could intensify during the first half of 2026.
The survey’s December employment index dropped to its lowest level since May of 2024. Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports, while urban areas across the Midwest generally performed better than agriculture-based rural communities — a trend Goss expects to continue.
Looking ahead, Goss says the regional economy is likely to move sideways over the next six months, with limited job growth. He says manufacturing may begin to rebound later in 2026, depending on economic conditions and policy decisions.
Goss says some business leaders surveyed reported tariffs have raised their input costs by at least 10 percent, and in some cases by nearly 50 percent. Many of those higher costs, he says, are being passed along to consumers.
According to the survey, 25 percent of respondents say tariffs have pushed prices up more than 15 percent, while more than a third of participants say they do not support the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
The survey uses a scale of zero to 100, with 50 indicating growth neutral. Goss says Iowa’s overall economic index fell to 44-point-6 in December, down from 52-point-1 in November.
Federal data also shows Iowa manufacturing exports for the first three quarters of 2025 fell by about nine percent compared to the same period in 2024 — dropping from 11-point-5 billion dollars to 10-point-5 billion.
