SATURDAY MORNING AG WRAP: Hogs, Prices, and Grain Stocks

Hogs:

On September 1, 2018, there were 23.6 million hogs and pigs on Iowa farms, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Hogs and Pigs report. This is the highest inventory on record, up 4 percent from the previous year.

The June-August 2018 quarterly pig crop was 6.38 million head, up 57,000 head from the previous quarter and 10 percent above last year. A total of 570,000 sows farrowed during this quarter. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 11.20 for the June-August quarter, unchanged from last year.

As of September 1, producers planned to farrow 560,000 sows and gilts in the September-November quarter and 540,000 head during the December 2018-February 2019 quarter.

United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2018 was 75.5 million head. This was up 3 percent from September 1, 2017, and up 3 percent from June 1, 2018.

Breeding inventory, at 6.33 million head, was up 3 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was up 3 percent from last year, and up 4 percent from last quarter.

The June-August 2018 pig crop, at 34.2 million head, was up 3 percent from 2017. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.19 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 10.72 for the June-August period, compared to 10.65 last year.

United States hog producers intend to have 3.16 million sows farrow during the September-November 2018 quarter, up 2 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2017, and up 4 percent from 2016. Intended farrowings for December-February 2019, at 3.12 million sows, are up 2 percent from 2018, and up 4 percent from 2017.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 48 percent of the total United States hog inventory, up from 47 percent the previous year.

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2017 through June 2018 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2018 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.4 percent. The net revision made to the March 2018 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.1 percent. A revision of less than 0.1 percent was made to the December 2017-February 2018 pig crop. The net revision made to the December 2017 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3 percent. A net revision of 0.2 percent was made to the September-November 2017 pig crop. The net revision made to September 2017 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3 percent. A net revision of less than 0.1 percent was made to the June-August 2017 pig crop.

Prices:

The average price received by farmers for corn during August in Iowa was $3.27 per bushel according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Agricultural Prices report. This was down $0.14 from the July price but $0.08 above a year ago.

The August 2018 average price received by farmers for soybeans, at $8.38 per bushel, was down $0.77 from the July price and $0.67 below the August 2017 price.

The August average oat price per bushel was $2.61, up $0.24 from July and $0.24 above August 2017.

All hay prices in Iowa averaged $105.00 per ton in August. This was up $2.00 from the July price and $5.00 above the August 2017 price. The August 2018 alfalfa hay price averaged $110.00, up $4.00 from the previous month and $5.00 above August 2017. The average price received for other hay during August was $88.00 per ton. This was down $9.00 from the July price but $5.00 above the August 2017 price.

The average price for milk was $16.30 per cwt, up $1.10 from the July price but $1.90 below one year ago.

Grain Stocks:

Corn stored in all positions in Iowa on September 1, 2018, totaled 475 million bushels, down 6 percent from September 1, 2017, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks, 29 percent were stored on-farm. The June – August 2018 indicated disappearance totaled 623 million bushels, 3 percent below the 642 million bushels from the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions in Iowa on September 1, 2018, totaled 87.9 million bushels, 66 percent above the 53.1 million bushels on hand September 1, 2017. This is the highest September 1 total stocks since 2007, but well below the record 158 million bushels set in 1986. Of the total stocks, 24 percent were stored on-farm. Indicated disappearance for June – August 2018 is 132 million bushels, 6 percent above the 124 million bushels from the same quarter last year.

Oats stored on-farm in Iowa on September 1, 2018, totaled 2.10 million bushels, down 7 percent from September 1, 2017.

Corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 2.14 billion bushels, down 7 percent from September 1, 2017. Of the total stocks, 620 million bushels are stored on farms, down 21 percent from a year earlier. Offfarm stocks, at 1.52 billion bushels, are up 1 percent from a year ago. The June – August 2018 indicated disappearance is 3.16 billion bushels, compared with 2.94 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 438 million bushels, up 45 percent from September 1, 2017. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 101 million bushels, up 15 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 337 million bushels, are up 58 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June – August 2018 totaled 781 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 2.38 billion bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 631 million bushels, up 28 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.75 billion bushels, are down 1 percent from a year ago. The June – August 2018 indicated disappearance is 605 million bushels, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 74.9 million bushels, 4 percent above the stocks on September 1, 2017. Of the total stocks on hand, 39.2 million bushels are stored on farms, 15 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 35.7 million bushels, 6 percent below the previous year. Indicated disappearance during June – August 2018 totaled 22.3 million bushels, compared with 27.7 million bushels during the same period a year ago.

Small Grain Stocks:

Oat production is estimated at 2.08 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Small Grains 2018 Summary. Oats planted, at 135,000 acres, is up 17 percent from last year. Harvested area for grain is 33,000 acres, down 21 percent from 2017. Oat yield, at 63.0 bushels per acre, is down 14.0 bushels from last year.

Winter Wheat production, at 348,000 bushels, is down 36 percent from last year. Planted acreage, at 16,000, is unchanged from 2017. Winter wheat harvested area for grain is 6,000 acres, down 25 percent from last year. Winter wheat yield, at 58.0 bushels per acre, is down 10.0 bushels from 2017.
All wheat production totaled 1.88 billion bushels in 2018, up 8 percent from the revised 2017 total of 1.74 billion bushels. Area harvested for grain totaled 39.6 million acres, up 5 percent from the previous year. The United States yield was estimated at 47.6 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from the previous year. The levels of production and changes from 2017 by type were: winter wheat, 1.18 billion bushels, down 7 percent; other spring wheat, 623 million bushels, up 50 percent; and Durum wheat, 77.3 million bushels, up 41 percent.

Oat production was estimated at 56.1 million bushels, up 14 percent from 2017. Yield was estimated at 64.9 bushels per acre, up 3.2 bushels from the previous year. Harvested area, at 865,000 acres, was 8 percent above last year.